As we enter the peak months of hurricane season, NOAA is updating its storm prediction from a near normal season in May to an above normal hurricane season.
"We are now predicting the likely ranges of tropical storm and hurricane activity to be 14 to 21 named storms, of which six to 11 could become hurricanes, and two to five of those could become major hurricanes," said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center Thursday.
NOAA has now placed a 60% chance of an above-average season, up from 30% in the May outlook. The chances of a near-normal season have fallen from 40% to 25%. There is just a 15% chance of a below-normal season.
"The main climate factors expected to influence the 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity are the ongoing El Nino and the record warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures," said Rosencrans. "The changes typically associated with El Nino appear to be a bit later than initially anticipated, so the season could have more activity than foreseen in the May outlook."
Other factors in the updated seasonal forecast are a below-normal wind shear forecast, slightly below-normal Atlantic trade winds and a near- or above-normal West African Monsoon.
The season runs through November 30.